I received this from the aurora center at the University of Alaska:
A solar event occurred on Dec 14th that may produce auroral displays greater than our auroral forecast index 4, sometime after midnight (0836 Greenwich time) on the 16th of Dec. This means the shock may reach Earth sometime around midnight on Dec 15 in North America. Depending on the character of the disturbance following the shock, viewing may be good on the night of the 16th and 17th.
Auroral Index 4 means Kp=4: Auroral activity will be active. Weather permitting, active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Inuvik, Yellowknife, Rankin and Igaluit to Juneau, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Sept-Iles, and visible low on the horizon from Vancouver, Great Falls, Pierre, Madison, Lansing, Ottawa, Portland and St. Johns for North America.
This is the description of the event:
Time: 2010 12 14 1503 UT
Location: N16W55
Shock velocity: Vs = 1000 km/sec
Duration: Tau = 4 hr.
Solar Wind velocity: Vsw = 625 km/sec
Our model predicts the following:
Mach 4.3 shock will reach Earth 2010 12 16 0836Z
Total propagation time 41h 33m
3 comments:
I have only seen them three times down here in NY. The most recent time they were red and shimmered and waved for a very long time all around the northern mountains
Cool. I don't think I've ever seen the Northern Lights. Maybe some day.
oooh! Hope it's clear tonight. Might have to drive up past the hay flats and see what there is to see. :)
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