U.S. Ammo Market, Production Update

 

By Dean Weingarten. November 30, 2020

Article Source

For the second time in a decade, demand for ammunition has outstripped supply in the United States. The first ammunition bubble was from 2012 to 2017. The next started in 2020.

Ammunition manufacturers have increased their capacity. In the face of increased demand, it has not been enough. Ammunition plants are running 24/7 to make profits while demand is high. Shortages still exist in the United States. Common calibers have disappeared from store shelves. Prices have risen. Panic buying and purchasing for private stockpiles has increased.

Those who purchased a stockpile in the interval between ammunition bubbles from 2017 to 2020, are considered wise and foresighted. At one point in October of 2018, .22 rimfire ammunition was available at 2.5 cents per round.

How much ammunition is being produced and purchased in the United States market?

During the .22 rimfire bubble, the productive capacity was increased from about 4 billion rimfire rounds to 5 billion rimfire rounds per year.

The National Shooting Sports Foundation has estimated total ammunition produced for the United States market in 2017 at 8.1 billion rounds.

In 2018, the total ammunition production for the United States was estimated at 8.7 billion rounds.

The numbers for 2019 should be published in December of 2020.

A reasonable extrapolation puts the amount of ammunition produced for the United States market at somewhat over 9 billion rounds, of which 5 billion are rimfire and 4 billion are centerfire rifle, pistol and shotgun rounds in 2020.

To put those numbers in perspective, the capacity of the U.S. military to produce small arms ammunition is 1.6 billion rounds per year. 99% of small arms ammunition for the military is produced at the Lake City ammunition plant in independence, Missouri. From alu.army.mil:

Over 99 percent of all small-arms bullets (5.56-millimeter [mm], 7.62-mm and .50-caliber) consumed by the Army under its Title 10 responsibility to supply and equip its forces are manufactured at the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant.

Lake City is the last of the World War II ammunition plants still in operation. All the rest have been shut down and decommissioned. In World War II, the U.S. produced 21.6 billion rounds of small arms ammunition per year. Most of the ammunition plants were shut down immediately after the war. During the Korean war, 4 plants were brought back into service. Now only the Lake City plant is operational. From jmc.army.mil:

After VJ day, all small caliber production plants except Lake City and Twin Cities were closed.Years later, the Korean Conflict would only require operation of six small caliber ammunition plants to meet wartime requirements. Five plants were utilized in the Vietnam War and amazingly today's production is able to meet requirements of 1.5 billion rounds per year by operating one facility, Lake City with Alliant Tech systems (ATK) as the current operating contractor. Modernization of production lines and new technologies has provided the abilities to meet this mission with a reduced infrastructure. Additional rounds are procured from General Dynamics and provided by NATO forces to meet total requirements.

Ammunition manufacturing capacity, for the United States market, is about 9 billion rounds per year. About 5 billion are rimfire, about 4 billion are centerfire.

Small arms ammunition capacity for the U.S. military is about 1.6 billion rounds per year. It is all centerfire ammunition.

©2020 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included. Gun Watch

Ammunition Shortage Explained

I believe the following exchange speaks for itself:

From: John Oniga <johnoniga@gmail.com>
Date: Thursday, July 2, 2020 at 3:50 PM
To: Eric Poole <Eric.Poole@OutdoorSG.com>
Subject: Ammo Shortage

Eric

Why no reporting on the ammo shortage we are now facing?

There is no 9mm or 5.56 NATO or 00 12 gauge ammunition here in NE Ohio.

Talking to other folks, it is the same in Chicago. Tennessee and Kentucky.

What happened? Is there cause for worry as this might be a form of liberal gun control? 

Please respond.

Thanks,

John Oniga

On Thu, Jul 2, 2020 at 5:07 PM Eric Poole <Eric.Poole@outdoorsg.com> wrote 

Good Afternoon Mr. Oniga,

Thank you for your email, and I want to assure you that we all share your concern. We are actually working on some reports for www.gunsandammo.com developed by our contributors, but one challenge we’ve encountered that I didn’t expect was that news would change faster than we can get accurate information posted. Things are changing fast and we learn something new every day. For example, I just got off the phone with Remington and learned that they focused on producing 9mm and 5.56 NATO rather than other cartridges for the time being. The demand is exceeding their ability to produce enough of the basic loads that they are not putting resources to other cartridges until supply-demand start to equalize again. From my chair, I believe that the ammo shortage is a genuine issue in delivering enough product from the manufacturers to distributors to retailers. I don’t think that there is a conspiracy behind the scenes since all of these ammo companies are running full staff with machines running around the clock. If anything is becoming a challenge, it’s the source of materials to create the lead, copper, brass, primers, powders and steel. So much of it is imported, and with the ongoing effects of COVID-19 as well as trade disputes between the U.S. and foreign nations that supply us, I suspect that we will eventually see manufacturers struggling to get the basic materials needed to produce ammunition. In fact, if they have to compete with one another, prices will go up until new supply solutions can be created.

Thank you for your support of Guns & Ammo.

Best,

Eric

Eric R. Poole, Editor

Guns & Ammo

Good News & Bad News

Good news: a local store has a load of 1,400-round "bucket o' bullets" for only $90.

Bad news: it's Remington Golden Garbage Bullets.

No thanks. But good to see multiple brands of .22 LR on the shelves again.

Saturday Shopping Fun

We did our usual running around for grocery items, a bit o' this and that, and then ...
and then we went to the new Bass Pro Shops Outpost.

I almost forgot to take pictures, on account of being too busy ogling all the new shiny toys.

But here are couple of things to whet your appetite:

Should be clickable, to enlarge

and this:

Since Bass Pro is a fishing store at heart, there were plenty of boats, canoes and kayaks, and lots of fishing gear. The firearms/shooting sports/ammo/reloading/accessories area is smaller than Cabela's, but that's okay. It never hurts to specialize.

And since Cabela's is only two miles from my house, I'm good with that. Heh.

Still, I picked up bore snakes for my .22 and the Garand ... and there was an added bonus. As we walked down the main ammo aisle, a clerk was putting these on the shelf:

$17.99 for 325 rounds of .22LR ... not bad, as modern prices go.

Haven't seen any of that on display up here in a couple of years. Only one per customer, but since my wife was with me ... w00t!

.22 Long Rifle: Big Shortage of Little Bullets

Excerpt:

While an ammunition shortage may be easing across much of the nation, Alaskans are still having a hard time finding .22-caliber ammunition, the smallest of rifle and gun cartridges. In fact, if you aren't at the sporting goods store or gun shop when it opens in the morning, you might have a better chance of encountering Bigfoot roaming the aisles than of finding ammunition for your .22-caliber weapon.

... About 20 people lined up at the Sportsman's Warehouse store on Old Seward Highway on Tuesday -- many had gotten there a half-hour before the place opened, hoping to get their hands on one of the 30 boxes of .22-caliber cartridges that would be available that day. Once the store opened they made a mad dash to the gun counter, where waiting employees -- without saying a word -- simply handed each a 500-round box. Within 10 minutes it was over.

"There are a lot of wild stories," said NSSF public affairs director Mike Bazinet. "One story we've heard anecdotally is that the government is buying up all the ammo. That is not true. Government purchases have gone down over last three years."

Bazinet said the .22-caliber shortage is easing up in the Lower 48, and the rounds can be found from Texas to Connecticut. But in Alaska, the ammunition is still hard to find and even harder to buy.

Some are buying it up and hoarding it, or re-selling boxes of .22-caliber ammo for a profit on websites like Alaska's List. Stores that do get the cartridges can't keep them on the shelves. Most have limited the number of boxes any one person can buy in an effort to keep ammo available.

Read the whole story at the link.

Standing in Line, and a New Follower

Amy Morgan has clicked the "Follow this Blog" button. Welcome, ma'am - and thank you.

* * * * *

You'll recall our experience, last week, waiting for ammo supplies at Big Box Store (arriving an hour early, being 250th in line, and having them run out of what Daughter wanted before we got to the counter).

Today's line was considerably longer. But Daughter arrived at 7:15, and was 4th. I joined her about a half hour before the doors opened at 0900.

Last week, they had a couple of pallets of ammo in various calibers, plus whatever would fit on the shelves behind the counter. This week, they had about 1/10th that much. There were very limited supplies of .308, 9mm, .45acp, and .22LR. We were rationed to one box per caliber, so she and I each purchased a box of .22, and one of 9mm.

But with only what would fit on a single shelf available, I'm thinking there were going to be some unhappy customers in that line.

Such is life at the tail end of the supply line.*


* Specifically referring to Alaska here, not the folks who arrived to late to get what they wanted. But I guess it applies to that, too.

Sloppy Saturday

It rained all night. This morning that changed into a rain/snow mix around 0700. The ground is white with the slushy brew, as are cars & rooftops. The streets are merely wet, which is okay with us. Most everyone has their snow tires off now, so now we play a waiting game and hope for the best.

Older daughter (one of those in an orange cap, in the previous post) wanted to try augmenting her pistol ammo supply. Sportsman's Warehouse receives their shipments on Friday night, and has it for sale on Saturday morning. The line was three times the length of what you can see here.

When the doors opened at 0900, there were over 300 people waiting to get in. We were about in the middle of that line. The line snaked through the store, went all the way to the back, and doubled back to the customer service desk were all that was available waiting on pallets.

When there were still 100 folks in front of us, the store announced that all the .22LR was gone. A few folks got out of line at that, but not many. When there were 50 between us and the counter, they ran out of 9mm. We left.

I did manage to score their last 8rd .45ACP mag, though, so it wasn't a total loss. Next week, Daughter's going to be there at 0730 and wait it out.

I've said it before, and will repeat: I'm so glad I stocked up last summer before the shortages began.

Tonight, the girls are taking me for dinner and a movie (Iron Man 3) as a birthday present. Tomorrow we're heading off to Chugiak for a range trip. I haven't fired my rifle since last October, so it's time.

Happy Daughter is Happy

The ammo shortage began, last fall, shortly after Older Daughter purchased a Ruger LC9. She's been despairing at her very limited ammo supply ever since.

There has been no 9mm ammo to be found, anywhere, for six months ... until this morning. At Wally World, I just happened to walk past the sporting goods area and saw a lone Remington UMC Mega-Pack (250 rounds) for $63.97.

Not a bad price at all ... and now that box resides on her desk, awaiting her return from wherever she's gone this morning.

I suspect she'll be grinning all day.   :^)

Tuesday's Stuff

I checked out the supplies at my favorite, out-of-the-way sporting goods shop, and a miracle happened! They had Winchester White Box .45acp in both 50- and 100-round quantities. I'm comfortable with my personal supply; not trying to arm a third-world country, myself, just be able to adequately defend myself and my family. Still, I bought a box, because you never know.

Still no 9mm or .22LR, though. I've appealed to friends in the Midwest to grab a few boxes if they come across any. My older daughter, the Appleseed instructor, goes through a lot of .22 on those weekends.

* * * * *

The Bethel newspaper, the Delta Discovery, is soliciting Bigfoot stories from its readers. Yes, folks, ol' Sasquatch isn't confined to the Pacific Cascades down south. Read the story here. (Bethel is some 385 miles west of Anchorage, on Alaska's southwest coast.) In Bethel, Bigfoot is called "Hairy Man", and the stories persist.

* * * * *

AccuHunch WeatherGuess has thrown its dart at the portion of the dartboard that reads "major winter storm", and that means - if they're anywhere near accurate (bwaahahahaha) - heavy snow, blowing & drifting, etc etc etc. In other words, a typical Alaskan weekend. Unlike in places further south, we don't have the FTFF* syndrome which causes folks to hoard bread, eggs and milk.

When heavy snows are forecast here, what sells out first are snow shovels, ice scrapers, and ice melt chemicals. Seems a bit more practical than French toast.

* * * * *

That's all I have for now. I really do appreciate y'all coming by everyday, and I don't take that for granted. As always, I'm open to suggestions for Alaskan topics which someone might want to read about - or pictures to see.

Thanks for stopping by.


* French Toast Feeding Frenzy

About That Ammo Shortage

On a whim, I walked through the ammo aisles at Sportsmen's Warehouse yesterday afternoon.

In terms of pistol ammo, they had:

• .38 Spcl in abundance
• .380 Auto
• .357 Mag
• .44 Spcl
• .44 Mag
• .45 Long Colt

And that's about it. I didn't check the rifle calibers, because I don't need any. The shot shell section seemed rather well-stocked, but for all I know it was all bird shot.

I did hear one clerk say that "Even our storeroom is bare." They had plenty of rifles, pistols & shotguns on the wall, though.

I suppose I could have checked a couple of other places, but they're probably just as depleted. Perhaps this situation will ease, like the panic buying in 2008/2009 ... but I'm not so sure. It almost seems that our current administration goes out of its way to incite a violent response, and it's testimony to the good sense & character of law-abiding firearm owners that no one has gone that way yet.

Ah well, work rears its ugly head. Later, y'all. Thanks for stopping by.

Deja Vu All Over Again

I just came from Sportsman's Warehouse, where the ammo shelves are two-thirds bare. The supply is, let's say, well picked-over. A clerk there told me even their storeroom is nearly empty; the ammunition flies out the door as quickly as they can stock it.

It appears that the President's remark about re-instituting a so-called "assault weapons ban" (i.e., a ban on scary-looking guns) has ramped things up a bit.

I then went to Sports Authority, in the same group of stores, and visited their little-known gun counter. Only some of their outlets have one, and many here don't know about this one. The ammo supplies were plentiful, but I couldn't find a clerk.

After finding one guy who said he didn't know anything about guns*, he paged someone to come help. I waited an additional five minutes and decided to leave. At the next stop, I found the ammo I was looking for & made my purchase.

These are certainly some strange days we're living in.



* Lack of knowledge has never stopped some folks from working at gun stores, in the past. At least this fella was honest.

Ammo Update

Okay. So ammunition comes into Anchorage, via cargo ship from the States, on Sunday. On Monday, the goods move from the Port of Anchorage to the retailers in town, and is placed on their shelves for sale. Keeping this in mind, I went back to Sportsmans' Warehouse today after work, knowing that they'd have the supplies freshly re-stocked.

They had plenty of most common handgun calibers - but only two boxes of .45ACP, in the lightweight 185gr. FMJ which I decried yesterday.

Oh well, one takes what one can get. I purchased those two boxes and will use them at the range, saving the 230gr. rounds for our walks bear country*.




*That means pretty much any place that's outdoors. Have I mentioned I love Alaska?

Uh-Oh - Not Again

I've been to the range several times since the first of the year, and have only picked up one box of replacement ammo for my 1911 during that time.

A quick visit to Wally World yesterday revealed they only had 6 or 7 boxes of Blazer ammo, at $29.95 per. That seemed a bit steep, so I moved on.

Sportsman's Warehouse was closed for Easter. The counter guy at The Sports Authority told me he not only had no .45 auto, but had sold his last two 1911 handguns the night before.

I was beginning to sense a trend here, but persevered.

After work, and after changing the oil in my wife's car, I gave it a post-oil-change shakedown drive (one always does that, doesn't one?) and zipped back to the Warehouse. Alas, they had only 5 boxes of Winchester white box in .45 ACP - 185 gr FMJ at $29.99. No 230 gr. hardball at all.

So when did the price jump from $22/box to $30?

They did have a few boxes of .357 Magnum, dozens of boxes of .40 S&W, .38 Spcl, .380 auto, 44 mag., and even .40 Sig. But no .45 ACP in the most common weight. Have I missed a memo, or is it just up here that my caliber-of-choice is suddenly non-existent?

5/17/10: Ammo, Taxes, and Weather

Mr. AccuHunch says we'll have fair skies & climb close to 60 degrees today, without the chilly winds that have kept the temps below normal for the last week. I don't think anyone in Anchorage wants him to be wrong.

* * * * *

Look what I found at Sportsman's Warehouse. It's the first .45 ACP I've seen* in Anchorage since Feb. 2009.

* * * * *

I've alluded to my interim career as a commercial property manager, while on sabbatical from the church.

Today I was alerted to yet another tax being considered by our Congress-critters. They propose to double the tax on "carried interest", which is a tax on the profits of a partnership ... such as the group that owns the medical plaza I manage.

Such a tax will inhibit development, as well as revenue generation - because, like any new tax on real estate, it will tend to reduce the number of transactions.

Like most taxes considered by the D.C. crowd, it's a really bad idea.



*That doesn't include the tiny, over-priced palm-sized boxes of "self-defense" ammo at $2/bullet. Pah.

Mid-Week in Anchorage

My friend Dana had agreed to ship me some ammo, in a caliber that's hard to find up here. That rather heavy box arrived today; I'll put it in the back of the locker, and use it when my existing supply starts to run low. Thanks, pal - I owe you one; the check will go out tomorrow.

* * * * *

Speaking of guns, an acquaintance told me that he got to play with an SKS over the weekend. Some guys have all the fun.

* * * * *

I've had enough national news for right now, and want to refresh my mental outlook. So I've been reading, but I'll take a break from Terry Pratchett to speak of other things.

It's 35 today, and melting continues. The snow bank at the edge of my parking lot at work is now lower than the hood of my Expedition. The driving lanes in the lot are clear, too, but the parking spaces have an icy coat remaining, due to the shade provided by the vehicles.

Overnight lows still dip into the mid-20s, so the freeze/thaw cycle will go on for awhile. Fortunately, we've had no really warm spells to generate large lakes from the thaw. "Really" warm here means any temps much above 40. Heh.

The ground is still frozen, so it will be awhile before anything turns green, but that's okay. It's still March, and much winter can happen in the next month. I don't want to speak anything into existence, but we're overdue for a blizzard... (I can hear my Alaska readers shouting "Stop! Stop!" right now.)

In Girdwood, about a half-hour southeast of Anchorage, they had quite a bit of snow today. I spoke with a friend there this morning, who told me they'd had 6" by 10 a.m., and it was still coming down at a good clip. Anchorage received no precip, as far as I know.

* * * * *

Moist von Lipwig is calling my name; it's back to the book(s)!

Anchorage Ammo Update

I've just returned from a brief tour of mid-town ammo supplies.

• There's more ammo on the shelves than I've seen since January or so; a lot of the inexpensive rifle ammo (that under $20 per 20 rounds) is sold out, but the $27, $33, and $40+ stuff is there. I saw .30-30 for the first time in months, and .30-06 in reasonable qualities.
• Pistol ammo, which has been all but non-existent up here for months, is starting to return. Sportsman's Warehouse has had .40 S&W for awhile, and I saw some other calibers today.
• The .270 I was looking for (the under $20 kind) was sold out at the first store I visited, but I found three boxes at the next place, so I grabbed those. Now they're sold out, too!
  
• Long guns and pistols also seem to be plentiful; it's nice to see firearms and ammo on display at the same time.
• The clerks in those stores no longer have the grim expressions I've noticed in previous visits.
  

Well Said

From a comment left at GOC's post on Ammo Sales:

... It's sort of comedic, the way the anti-gun folks have spurred gun sales. But the underlying note is a chilling one. We sense something bad is coming. The borrowing can't continue. The controls are ever-more invasive. Somethings got to give. We don't know where or what, but we're uncomfortable. We take a small amount of comfort in knowing that, if civil controls fail, we're armed.

Having a gun is no panacea. There are always people out there with bigger guns, and more of them. A gun in my hand doesn't mean I can't be killed. But it does mean I can't be enslaved. They can take my life but not my humanity.

These are disturbing thoughts to be harboring in the land of the free and the home of the brave. Our political leadership will say I've become another dangerous right-wing kook. Is it true? It's a question I ask of myself. Have I moved into crazy territory? Or am I just telling it like it is?

In any case, I'm not a danger to anyone. Not planning on launching a revolution. I'm just getting on with my stupid life. But I sleep better knowing that if anything comes after me, I've got the right tool to do what must be done.

Posted by TalkinHorse at November 4, 2009 04:04 PM

Exactly.

Saturday Morning in the Rain

Good morning. It's 42 and rainy/sloppy/messy out there. My original plan was to visit the range, but haven't quite worked up the enthusiasm to shoot in the rain. AccuHunch says there may be some dry spells later today.

I've been back to my new favorite store & picked up another hundred rounds of rifle ammo. Nothing for my pistol, but I priced other pistols while waiting for a clerk to arrive. Their prices are cheaper than Wal-Mart's, so I think I know where I'll get the next one.

Then I went over to Sportsman's Warehouse for their 'employee discount' sale - everything's about 20% off. Still no .45ACP anywhere that I can find, but they also presented gifts to the first 100 people in the door; I was there at 10 minutes before opening, and was #98 in line. I also noticed that the line behind me was just as long as the original crowd had been when I arrived.

Since they were giving them away, I picked up a Sheffield folding pocketknife; never tried that brand before, so we'll see how it goes. I gave it a few licks on a whetstone to sharpen the cutting edge, so I'll know soon whether it will hold.

The biggest part of the crowd headed straight for the gun counter, which is no surprise. Twenty percent off on a firearm is a pretty good deal.

I looked for pistol ammo there, too, and of course there was none in .45. They had about 5,000 rounds of .40 S&W which must have just come in, and about 3,000 rounds of .223. I noticed they finally have my rifle ammo there, too, and about 50 cents/box cheaper than at the other place. But they only had about 8 boxes, so it won't last long.

That's about it for now; thanks for stopping by.

Here, At Last

I mentioned in a previous post that I had ordered a modest quantity of ammo (250 rounds) from AmmunitionToGo. It was an online procedure; the website quoted a shipping rate and approximate delivery date.

The price per round, including shipping, was well under half what it would cost to purchase locally, so I gladly made the purchase. The next day, I received an e-mail from their customer service department, explaining that they couldn't ship it their regular way. I approved shipment via UPS, provided a business address here, and that was that, or so I thought.

On the third day, I received another e-mail, explaining that they couldn't ship to Alaska at all. At this point, I could have gotten angry, because their website didn't mention that bit. But my anger would have accomplished nothing, and I'd still be without ammo. Therefore, I gave them the address for my oldest friend in Missouri, which they happily accepted.

I contacted my buddy & told him what was up. He owns an appliance store, and is familiar with common shipping methods. No problem, right? He talked to the Post Office; they refused to accept a shipment of ammo. More on that, later.

He checked with FedEx; they won't ship except to a licensed dealer. He checked with a friend in the air freight business; they had no problem shipping the ammo, as long as it was 400 pounds or more.

He spoke with a couple of other folks, and nothing else would work, either. He finally managed to get in touch with the guy from his local gun shop, who had been traveling.

The gun store guy said the postman was "full of (redacted)" and that he ships ammo every day. So they took the stuff to the post office on Thursday or Friday, and sent it "priority mail".

The ammo showed up yesterday afternoon, in only a couple of days' time. Even though I wound up paying shipping charges on the box twice, it's still cheaper than what I was able to find locally - and now a trip to the range is in order. Yay!

I promised I would publish his name if everything worked out, so my thanks go to Tim at Pacific Guns and Archery, 103 Metrocom Drive, Pacific, MO 63069. He shipped the box to me at actual cost, but could have charged more.

I'm a happy camper.

Wally World Update

So I made it to and from Wal-Mart, no mean feat in these days of endless road construction. The big box store is 3.5 miles from my place, and I currently have to go a mile farther to avoid the construction and closed roads. "They" say it will all be better when the project is finished in September 2010. Yeah, right. More likely, they're just rearranging the potholes.

The freeze/thaw cycle and frost heave are murder on roads. I'm surprised they hold up as well as they do.

So at Wally's place, I made a beeline for the ammo counter, like always. To my surprise, they had some ammo. A few boxes of this, that, and the other. Nothing in the calibers I need, of course.

The biggest surprise was at least 25 200-round 'megapacks' of Remington .223 ammo. On the other hand, I doubt there will be any left by tomorrow.

So, with new wipers for the car & truck, I made my way back 'round the barrels, road signs, warning flag wavers, and police cars with flashing lights, and tooled on down the highway.

In another surprise, the sun has come out, and our temp has risen to 62. I notice that AccuHunch has modified its forecast to reflect the current temp as its predicted high for the day ("Uh, yeah, that's what we meant to say").

A stiff breeze is rising, though, and my short-sleeve shirt is suddenly too cool. Guess it's about time to inventory the winter shirts, and get prepared for colder weather.